Beta: Scenario Planner

Scenario Planner is currently available in Beta. It is built on your monthly MMM and lets you test different spend levels for a single month across your marketing mix to see how projected results change. This article describes everything you need to know about it.

Access: once Scenario Planner is enabled for your workspace, you can start using it right away in dashboard.paramark.com under Plan. In some cases, your Growth Advisor may also introduce it in your shared Slack channel and share a short walkthrough video to help your team get started.

What if I can log in but do not see the planning views or reports I expected?

If you can sign in to Paramark but do not see Plan or the reports you expected, the most common reason is that your user has access to the workspace but has not been granted access to the relevant report yet — or that the report was previously shared and is no longer attached to your login.

• First, confirm you are signing in with the same work email address your Paramark team invited.

• If you were just added, wait a few minutes and refresh the page. Access changes can take a moment to appear.

• If the page is still missing the expected report or planning view, contact your Paramark team or shared Slack channel and ask them to share the relevant report to your user.

When you reach out, include the email address you used to sign in and, if helpful, a screenshot of the page you are seeing. That helps us confirm whether this is a sharing issue or a different access problem.

Depending on how your team works, your Growth Advisor may also share direct links to scenario plans for specific MMMs or let you know when newly refreshed MMMs are available in Reports. Depending on your data-sharing setup, the same refreshed MMM data may also already be available in your datashare. Those links are simply shortcuts into the same planning workflow and can help you jump straight into the model you want to review.

If you want a quick walkthrough before diving in, you can also watch this short demo video: Scenario Planner walkthrough.

Scenario Planner tends to become even more valuable once your live data feed is set up, because refreshed MMM outputs give you a more current baseline for planning conversations and scenario testing.

What is the Scenario Planner and why we built it?

The Scenario Planner ("Plan" in the dashboard) is a what-if tool for budget allocation, informed by your MMM. With it, you can try different spend levels for a single month across your marketing mix and see how your projected results change.

The tool anchors on the most recent month of your latest MMM refresh. It uses that month's:

• Total spend as the budget for scenario planning ("Set your budget")

• Channel allocations as the default channel spend levels ("Current spend")

• Response curves to suggest a spend level for each channel ("Recommended spend")

Why might “Current spend” differ from what we are spending right now?

Scenario Planner reflects the spend captured in the most recent month of your latest MMM refresh, not necessarily the live in-flight budget you are spending today. If you changed a channel budget after that month closed, or after the latest MMM refresh, the planner may still show the earlier amount as “Current spend” until a newer refresh is available.

Quick troubleshooting checklist:

• Check which month the planner is anchored to. The planner starts from the most recent month in the latest MMM refresh, so a recent budget cut may not appear yet.

• Compare “Current spend” to that anchored month, not to this week’s live pacing. The number is historical context for planning, not a live budget tracker.

• If you want to evaluate today’s budget, build a custom scenario. Update the per-channel spend values to match your current plan before comparing outcomes.

If you want to evaluate today’s plan, create a custom scenario and update the per-channel spend values to match your current budget before comparing outcomes.

If you have a hierarchical model, you work on one geography at a time or at an aggregate level in the Scenario Planner.

Working by country or custom budget slice: if your MMM is set up hierarchically, you can switch between the aggregate view and individual markets to review or plan at the level that matches your decision. This is useful when different countries have different efficiency curves, constraints, or growth priorities. You can use the planner both to evaluate a country-specific budget change and to compare how a broader allocation strategy would look across markets.

A practical approach is to first align on the overall budget direction at the aggregate level, then review each key market to see whether the same recommendation still makes sense locally. If one country has materially different saturation, seasonality, or channel economics, use a custom scenario for that market rather than forcing the same mix everywhere.

How it works

The Scenario Planner uses the response curves that the model learns during the training period. These curves will be less accurate for spend levels you rarely exercise, and even less accurate for spend levels you've never tried. The more data points you have for a specific spend level, the more accurate your results.

The optimizer is not an LLM. It uses the response curves learned during modeling to find the spend level predicted to maximize the target metric.

Why we built it

Budget allocation conversations happen constantly — across weekly check-ins, quarterly planning, and every moment someone asks "what would happen if we shifted spend from one channel to another?" The Scenario Planner gives you a model-informed, transparent way to explore those questions instead of relying on intuition or back-of-the-envelope math.

How to use your scenario planner

Getting started

To start, we automatically optimize your budget based on your most recent MMM refresh so that you do not have to make any adjustments. It’s intended for you to review and consider before creating your own custom scenarios. We’ve done an initial “what if” for you labeled “Recommended Scenario.”

We break out per-channel budgets in a table so you can see recommended spend changes, where they reside on the model’s response curves, as well as the CPA for the updated spend.

In the right panel you’ll see results:

• Monthly projection for your target metric and blended CPIC / CPA

• A summary of recommendations from the optimizer (”Top shifts”)

How to interpret CAC views in scenario planning

If you compare Scenario Planner outputs to your operating dashboards, do not assume every CAC view is meant to match exactly. A last-touch CAC reflects the conversions your attribution system directly credits to a channel. A weighted CAC is a planning view that adjusts that operating number so it better reflects the broader incremental picture your MMM is capturing.

That means a channel can show a last-touch CAC of one value in your dashboard and a different weighted CAC in planning without either number being “wrong.” They are answering different questions: last-touch CAC helps you run channels day to day, while weighted CAC helps you compare budget options using a broader measurement lens.

When sharing a plan internally, it can also be useful to pair the scenario with portfolio CAC charts or other rollup views so stakeholders can see both the channel-level shifts and the portfolio-level efficiency implications in one place.

What questions it can help you answer

Scenario Planner is most useful when you already have a concrete planning question in mind. Common examples include:

• What happens if we reallocate budget from one channel to another? You can compare a current allocation against a proposed shift and see how projected outcomes change.

• Where should the next dollar go? Ask the MMM where more investment would be most efficient for growth.

• Are we likely over-invested anywhere? If a channel is already on the flatter part of its curve, additional spend may produce limited incremental return.

• How should we frame a budget conversation internally? The tool can help you pressure-test a plan before sharing it with finance, leadership, or channel owners.

The output is best used as a directional planning aid rather than a precise forecast. It is meant to sharpen decisions, not replace judgment.

Creating a custom scenario

Click the “+ Custom scenario” button.

You can then make changes to the total and/or per-channel budgets to see their effect. For example, you can:

• Change the "Max change” slider to adjust the guardrails constraining how much the optimizer can move a channel’s spend up or down.

• The initial figures in “Your spend” will be the same as the optimizer’s recommendations

• Enter or update numbers in the “Your spend” column or drag the colored dot along the curve

  • Once you change a number, this “locks” the spend and ignores guardrails. You can unlock and reset a channel by clicking the blue lock icon on the far right.

  • You can also lock a channel without updating the spend.

• Click the magnifier icon on any curve to see a larger drawing of the curve. Moving the colored spend dot will change the spend as well.

• Explore the “Curve rows” and “All channels” views as well. They are just different views into the same data points: spend as related to the response curve. They are interactive as well.

Once you’re satisfied with your budget updates, click “Optimize” to see how the results differ.

Click “Share this plan” to download a .xlsx version of the plan or copy the link to this scenario to share with a colleague.

Plans are per organization, so any change will be visible to all users. To avoid clobbering someone else’s plan just make a new one.

Using Scenario Planner for annual planning and monthly DR optimization

A common use case for Scenario Planner is turning an MMM readout into an actionable annual planning process. Teams often use the tool in two layers: first to shape the broader annual mix they want to commit to, and then to make smaller monthly direct-response adjustments as new MMM refreshes arrive.

For annual planning, use Scenario Planner to pressure-test a few high-level allocation choices rather than treating the recommended scenario as a final budget. The most useful question is usually not “what is the single perfect plan?” but instead “which reallocation directions look robust enough to build into next quarter or next year's plan?” If the same channels repeatedly emerge as under- or over-invested across several scenarios, that is often the most actionable planning signal.

For monthly optimization, treat the tool as a disciplined way to evaluate smaller DR shifts on top of the annual strategy. If your organization has already aligned on a broader budget direction, monthly planning is usually about fine-tuning channel mix within that envelope rather than rewriting the entire plan each time the MMM refreshes.

A practical workflow is:

• Start from the most recent MMM refresh and confirm the target metric, geography, and channel mapping match the planning conversation you are having.

• Build one scenario that reflects your current allocation and one or two scenarios that reflect realistic reallocation options for the next planning period.

• Use the projected outcome and blended efficiency view to compare those options at the portfolio level, not just channel by channel.

• Translate the recommended changes into a smaller set of decisions stakeholders can evaluate, such as where to add budget, where to hold flat, and where to reduce spend.

• Revisit the plan on a monthly cadence as refreshed MMM outputs arrive, using the new data to refine DR allocations without losing sight of the broader annual strategy.

When sharing these outputs internally, it helps to frame Scenario Planner as a planning aid anchored in the MMM rather than as an automatic budget setter. That positioning tends to work especially well with finance and executive stakeholders who want to understand both the strategic direction for annual planning and the operating rhythm for monthly optimization.

Using Scenario Planner when your planning conversation is about SQO or pipeline targets

A common B2B planning question is whether Scenario Planner can help a team estimate what different budget allocations might imply for SQO or pipeline. The short answer is: yes, as a directional planning aid — but the quality of that answer depends on the target metric and the data underneath your MMM.

If your MMM is already anchored on a qualified down-funnel metric such as SQO or pipeline and the data has enough volume, stable definitions, and manageable lag, Scenario Planner can help you compare budget mixes against that target directly. In that setup, the planner is showing model-informed tradeoffs for the metric your organization already chose to optimize.

If your MMM is anchored on an earlier-funnel metric such as leads, demos, or another qualified demand signal, Scenario Planner is still useful for annual planning — but the cleanest interpretation is usually to use the planner for the modeled metric first, then translate that result into expected SQO or pipeline through a separate conversion-rate layer or planning discussion. That tends to be more reliable than forcing the planner to answer a down-funnel question the model itself is not cleanly built to support.

A practical way to use the tool for an annual-planning conversation is:

• Confirm the target metric behind the planner. Before comparing scenarios, make sure everyone in the meeting understands whether the model is optimizing toward leads, qualified pipeline, SQOs, revenue, or another metric.

• Use the planner to compare realistic allocation directions. Build a current-state scenario and one or two alternatives that reflect the actual budget paths under discussion.

• Translate the output into downstream business context. If leadership ultimately cares about SQO or pipeline, pair the planner output with your known conversion assumptions instead of pretending the scenario itself is a precise sales forecast.

• Treat the result as directional, not exact. Scenario Planner is best for pressure-testing tradeoffs and surfacing likely reallocation patterns, especially during annual planning. It should support judgment, not replace it.

Treat bucket-level response curves as a directional planning tool, not a guaranteed operating plan. If your team is asking for the response curves across all MMM buckets to support annual planning, the most useful read is usually comparative: which buckets appear to have more headroom, which are flattening, and how the tradeoff changes as spend moves from one bucket to another.

For B2B teams, it is especially important to separate the modeled target metric from the downstream business metrics you may use in planning conversations such as cost per SQL or blended efficiency views like eCP. If the MMM and Scenario Planner are already anchored on SQLs, qualified pipeline, or another down-funnel target with enough volume, the response curves can help you compare budget shifts against that target directly. If the model is anchored higher in the funnel, use the curves to understand relative headroom and reallocation direction first, then translate that into SQL or eCP expectations through your known conversion assumptions rather than treating the curve itself as a precise sales forecast.

A practical annual-planning workflow is:

• Confirm what each bucket represents. Make sure the buckets and target metric in the planning view match the actual budgeting conversation.

• Compare headroom, not just current efficiency. A bucket that looks efficient today may still be a poor destination for the next dollar if it is already flattening on its curve.

• Pressure-test a few realistic reallocation scenarios. Use the response curves to compare plausible spend shifts rather than searching for one supposedly perfect plan.

• Translate the result into operating metrics carefully. If leadership wants cost per SQL or eCP implications, pair the modeled output with your downstream conversion and efficiency assumptions instead of assuming the planner itself is a full-year forecast.

This tends to produce a better planning conversation because the response curves help you see where the portfolio likely has room to move, while the SQL and efficiency translation keeps the discussion grounded in the metrics the business actually manages to.

What if the Recommended Scenario seems to disagree with my MMM readout?

This is a common question, especially when one view suggests a channel looks efficient while the Recommended Scenario suggests reducing it. In most cases, the two views are not actually answering the exact same question.

• First confirm you are looking at the same MMM refresh, geography, and target metric. Scenario Planner is anchored to the most recent month in a specific MMM refresh. If your report, spreadsheet, or another dashboard view is based on a different refresh, a different market, or a different target metric, the recommendation can look inconsistent even when each view is internally correct.

• Remember that the report and the planner emphasize different decisions. An MMM readout explains what the model learned across the broader historical window, while Scenario Planner uses the latest anchored month and the modeled response curves to pressure-test a single-month planning decision. A channel can still be an efficient contributor overall while appearing closer to saturation for the next dollar in the current planning view.

• If the underlying inputs were recently corrected, updated, or remapped, treat the recommendation cautiously until the next refresh. For example, if spend for a channel was wrong in the latest inputs and later fixed, or if channel mapping changed, the planner may still reflect the older anchored month until a refreshed MMM is available.

• Use a custom scenario before making a real budget move. Update the relevant channel spends, compare a few realistic alternatives, and use the planner as a directional planning aid rather than an automatic budget setter.

If the mismatch still feels too large after checking scope and refresh timing, ask your Paramark team to QA the underlying source data, channel mapping, and the exact MMM version the planner is using before acting on the recommendation.

What the current beta supports today and where customers often want more

Based on the current beta experience, Scenario Planner is still best for exploring a single-month planning question at a time. It is especially useful for pressure-testing reallocations, understanding marginal tradeoffs, and shaping an annual planning conversation from the most recent MMM refresh.

A few requests come up often during annual planning:

• Annual or multi-month views: customers often want to see a full-year rollup or a month-by-month forecast for the coming year. Today, the beta is anchored to one month from the latest MMM refresh, so it should be used as a directional input into annual planning rather than as a built-in 12-month forecasting tool.

• Seasonality-aware planning: if your planning question depends heavily on month-to-month seasonality, pair the Scenario Planner with your MMM readout and a broader planning discussion rather than assuming the planner itself is modeling every monthly seasonal swing in a single scenario.

• Additional output columns: teams sometimes want to see more planning columns such as incremental outcomes or ROAS-style views directly in the planner table. Depending on your setup, some of those perspectives may still need to be discussed alongside the MMM or shared separately rather than relying on the default planner view alone.

If these are the questions you are trying to answer, the best use of the current beta is to compare a few realistic allocation directions, then combine that output with your MMM interpretation, seasonality context, and operating judgment when you turn it into a quarterly or annual plan.

When your Growth Advisor shares a scenario planning sheet

In some planning workflows, your Growth Advisor may also share a Google Sheet or spreadsheet view ahead of a working session. That sheet is typically a planning artifact built from the same Scenario Planner conversation, not a separate product with a different methodology.

These shared sheets are most useful when your team needs to:

• Review scenarios asynchronously before a meeting: for example, to compare a few budget levels or channel-mix options with internal stakeholders.

• Capture annual-planning assumptions in a format your team already uses: especially when finance or leadership wants a spreadsheet-based planning artifact.

• Document a recommended scenario alongside manual adjustments: such as channels you want to hold flat, lock, or pressure-test further in discussion.

• Share a monthly channel view for planning conversations: if your team wants a month-by-month spreadsheet or CSV-style artifact for channels, spend, or downstream planning metrics such as SQO or pipeline, your Growth Advisor may share a companion planning sheet built from the same MMM and Scenario Planner discussion. Treat that artifact as a planning aid and confirm which MMM refresh, target metric, and assumptions it reflects.

A shared planning sheet should be treated as a companion to the MMM and Scenario Planner, not as a precise forecast on its own. Use it to organize decisions, compare options, and prepare for discussion with your team or your Growth Advisor.

If anything in the sheet looks different from what you expect in the product, first confirm which MMM refresh, geography, and planning assumptions the sheet is based on. Those context choices usually explain why a planning sheet differs from a live dashboard or a newer in-flight budget.

How to interpret a shared awareness media plan with multiple spend levels

Sometimes your Growth Advisor may share a planning sheet that lays out several awareness media plan options at different spend levels. Treat that sheet as a decision-support artifact, not as a separate forecasting product.

• Read each spend level as a scenario, not a commitment. The purpose is to compare what may change as budget increases or decreases, usually across channel mix, expected efficiency, or projected outcomes.

• Confirm the baseline month and target metric first. A spend-level sheet is only interpretable if you know which MMM refresh, geography, and target metric anchor the scenarios.

• Look for the directional tradeoff. The most useful question is usually not "which row is exactly right?" but rather "what changes as we move from a lower spend level to a higher one, and which shifts appear robust enough to support a real planning decision?"

• Use the sheet together with Scenario Planner and MMM context. If a higher awareness budget looks promising in the sheet, pressure-test it against the planner, the response curves, and the broader MMM story before treating it as the operating plan.

This is especially helpful for annual planning or pre-meeting alignment, where the goal is to compare a few realistic budget levels and decide which one is worth discussing further with leadership.

Best practices & tips to get value from your scenario planner

The Scenario Planner is a powerful tool — and like any powerful tool, it's worth understanding what it can and can't do.

• It cannot predict the future: Don't think of it as a tool that tells you how many leads or signups a particular marketing mix will generate. Instead, think of it as a data-driven way to compare options you're already considering, while offering one of its own.

• It cannot identify the truly optimal marketing mix: This depends on many variables it doesn't have access to. It offers a transparent way to compute a projection — not a definitive answer on what's best.

• Use it like a calculator, not a brain: Just as you would not blindly implement an LLM's suggestions, you should not blindly implement the Scenario Planner's recommended plan. Bring its outputs to your growth advisor conversations, they're a starting point, not a final word.

How can you provide feedback on the Scenario Planner?

The Scenario Planner is in beta, which means your feedback genuinely shapes where it goes next. We're actively iterating on the time horizons we support, the optimizer's recommendations, and the way results are presented, and we want to hear from you.

The fastest ways to reach us:

• Message your Growth Advisor directly, or drop a note in your shared Slack channel.

• Tell us what's working, what's confusing, and what's missing — especially the moments where the Scenario Planner helped you think through a decision faster, or left you wanting more.

A few prompts that are especially useful to us right now: Is the Scenario Planner's recommended allocation landing close to what you'd expect? Is the allowed range visualization clear? What budget questions do you wish it could help you answer that it currently can't?

Thanks for helping us build it. This is just the first version, and the best ideas for where it goes next will come from the people using it every day.